Intergenerational report further evidence of need for reform, peak bodies say.

Another report, another worrying prediction. Industry leaders have seized on the third Intergenerational Report (IGR3), released last week, as further evidence of the need to reform aged care.

They say that combined with previous reports from the Productivity Commission and the Senate enquiry into aged care, the government will have no choice but to implement major policy changes to address immediate issues and plan for future demand.

IGR3 found the number of people aged 65 to 84 will more than double by 2050, while the population of those aged 85 and over will more than quadruple.

By 2050, the number of working-aged people to every person aged 65 and over will fall to only 2.7 people compared to five now. Around half of government spending will be directed to health, age-related pensions and aged care by 2049-50, compared to around a quarter now, the report said.

“The release of the report shows a bleak future faces our frail elderly as the aged care industry cannot guarantee access, choice or sustainability for the future, given current policy,” said Gerard Mansour, CEO, ACCV.

“Data released last year shows community care services declined in real terms from an average of seven hours care per week 10 years ago to just five hours per week in 2008.”

The industry needed massive additional investment in services and there must be a greater contribution both by government and those who have capacity to pay, Mansour said.

“The report underscores the need for aged care to be working optimally, and linked more seamlessly into the health system,” said Greg Mundy, CEO, ACSA.

“The government has been pretty vocal on the ageing population, the challenge of supporting it, and the productivity issue. But instead of just talking the talk, they now need to start walking the walk,” he said.

The report gave credence to the industry’s push for major reform, which is critical if there is to be any hope of meeting the diverse needs of a whole generation aged over 65, Mundy said.

“Aged care is currently contending with funding issues, over regulation and in some areas a major shortfall of services and accommodation. Some of these issues can be addressed in the short term to ensure a sound footing for future reform, much of which is directly linked to the recommendations made in the NHHRC report,” he said.

Alzheimers Australia said IGR3 highlighted that an ageing population will bring about a dementia epidemic. Without a significant medical breakthrough, the number of Australians diagnosed with dementia is expected to reach 1.13 million by 2050, it said.

The Australian Nursing Federation said with the number of Australians aged 85 and older expected to hit 400,000 by 2050, the government would have to take measures to ensure adequate staff ratios.

ANF federal secretary Ged Kearney said some facilities have just one nurse for every 30 residents – and the ratio would only get worse.

Elsewhere, a leading gerontologist has criticised IGR3 for focussing too closely on productivity.

“Much of the 2010 report makes me feel I’m living in a technocracy in which productivity reigns,” Anna Howe told INsite.

“It is only in the last chapter that the kind of society we might want gets much of a look in, and even then, sustainability is very much in terms of sustaining productivity.”

As with the previous intergenerational reports, the generations seem to be strangely separate from each other, each occupying a band of years on the many graphs, she said.

“There is very little recognition that we now have four generations instead of just two – a younger and an older generation – or that the close personal relationships between people in the different generations mean they have shared interests in the future. For example, without grandparents providing a lot of childcare that goes on well past early school years, many of the mothers in those working families would not be able to work.”

Howe said she would like the next intergenerational report to view the kind of social relationship between generations that we want to sustain and strengthen as Australian society, not just the population, ages. 

Meanwhile, peak bodies welcomed the government’s financial package aimed at supporting older workers, launched alongside IGR3.

The $43.3 million productive ageing package will provide support to older Australians who want to stay in the workforce by investing in job training for mature jobseekers and support mature workers mentoring young Australians.

“The work measure is a useful one. I doubt it will change the world but there is evidence of lower participation rates for older workers and we do hear reports of age discrimination in the workplace, so we welcome the measure,” said Mundy.

IGR3: We’re getting on

• People aged 65 to 84 are projected to more than double by 2050, and those aged 85 and over to more than quadruple.

• By 2050 the number of working aged people to every person aged 65 and over will fall to only 2.7 people compared to five now.

• Around half of government spending will be directed to health, age-related pensions and aged care by 2049/50, compared to around a quarter now.

• Australia’s population is expected to grow to 35.9 million in 2050 compared to 22.2 million in 2010.

• Government spending is projected to exceed revenue by around 2.75 per cent of gross domestic product by 2049-50.