New variants unlikely to lock down aged care: experts

The appearance of two new sub variants of Omicron in Australia is unlikely to lead to renewed restrictions and lockdowns in aged care, two immunologist experts have said.

BQ.1.1 and XBB strains recently emerged in NSW, Victoria and WA, and concerns have been raised whether it'll trigger a new Covid wave and bring back protective measures.

Professor Jaya Dantas from Curtin School of Population Health said she doesn't expect to see more lockdowns since most Australians, including older people, have been fully vaccinated. 

Since November 2nd, over 150,000 aged care residents have received three or more doses, which is 96.2 per cent of the eligible population.

"The age of stringent public health measures and lockdowns has passed because we know so much more now," Dantas said.

"We know about the mitigation factors but also the risks and costs."

Dantas said previous restrictions have negatively impacted people's mental health, particularly for people living and working in aged care. 

At the height of the pandemic, families of older people in aged care were prohibited from seeing each other to prevent further outbreaks and deaths in homes.

"During Covid restrictions, that social aspect was all lost and impacted the mental health of older people," Dantas said.

"It showed that older people crave that social interaction with their family and loved ones and that it's equally important to their health."

Since BQ.1.1 and XBB appeared in Australia, Covid infections in aged care homes have varied little.

On October 20th, there were 204 active Covid outbreaks (1,008 combined new resident and staff cases). From November 3rd, 213 outbreaks were reported, with 990 new combined cases.

While most states have eased Covid restrictions, the health department still highly recommends that visitors and staff perform frequent RAT tests and ask anyone about Covid symptoms.

NSW also extended its Covid response until January 31st next year.

"Now, we have to move to living with Covid," Dantas said.

"This means governments have to work together and support each other."

Earlier this week, the WHO released a transition plan with recommended measures for countries to prepare for 'the transition into long-term Covid control.'

Dantas said we must continue the research and development that will be shared across the world to provide everyday evidence to help with the pandemic at a future level.

Currently, the Omicron lineage BA.5 accounts for nearly half of Australia's Covid cases.

Of those who tested positive in NSW, 5 per cent had been infected with the BQ.1.1 strain and 7 per cent with XBB.

Yet, preliminary research has suggested the two strains have increased transmissibility and immunity evasion.

"At the moment, we don't know the severity of the sublineages," Dantas said.

Sydney University's professor Robert Booy, who specialises in infectious diseases, said the latest Covid subvariants may warrant the end of the global pandemic.

"The virus is running out of ways to mutate," he said.

"Normally, we see a new variant every six months – we haven't seen a new one for twelve months.

"It's literally infected tens of millions of people, so there are not many mutations it hasn't tried to become more transmissible."

Booy said there have been 'hundreds of minor variations in the last few months.'

"The only reason why these two are predominating at the moment is that they're a bit more transmissible."

He's not expecting the subvariants to cause a significant uptick in Australia's Covid numbers over the upcoming months.

"There might be a small up in cases, but not as big as previous waves, because the strain is not sufficiently different compared to other Omicron variants," he explained.

"In Australia, we've got roughly 80 per cent of the population who've been vaccinated and a similar number who've had wildfire infection, based on blood samples.

"So, I don't think there will be another lockdown or uptake of restrictions."

Dantas said it's difficult to predict the future with any given virus, especially Covid.

"It may not be the end of the pandemic, but it might continue to come in waves and small outbreaks in certain countries," she said.

"What we are currently doing in monitoring and observing new strains and looking at the transmissibility and the severity of the strains is the most important."

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